Climate Change Has Broad Repercussions

“Climate change is already here and our weather has already changed,” noted Stony Brook University Associate Provost for Climate and Sustainability Kevin Reed when asked what eastern Long Island residents can expect when it comes to climate change in the near future.

“Long Islanders need to continually adapt to these changing conditions,” he said. “We can expect warmer temperatures (both daytime highs and nighttime lows) and more impactful extremes, including hotter heat waves, more intense flooding and strong storms.”

But this is only part of the climate change picture as the phenomenon will have local as well as national and international repercussions in ways in which we are only beginning to understand.

Climate change headlines often miss some of the most important costs, argues R. Jisung Park, an environmental and labor economist, assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania and author of the forthcoming book “Slow Burn: The Hidden Costs of a Warming World.” Park asks such questions as: When wildfires blaze, what happens to those downwind? When natural disasters destroy buildings and bridges, what happens to educational outcomes?

Park sees climate change as the “silent accumulation of a thousand tiny conflagrations,” including imperceptibly elevated health risks spreading across billions, pennies off the dollar in productivity and fewer opportunities for upward mobility.

Locally and worldwide, coastal communities are increasingly turning to “shoreline hardening” to protect infrastructure from sea level rise, storm surge, and erosion, according to the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science. But are these structures doing more harm than good? Shoreline hardening or “armoring” typically involves installation of artificial structures such as concrete or steel walls, or riprap borders consisting of large stones or boulders. Coastal communities and homeowners may wish to consider using natural and nature-based features for shoreline stabilization as an alternative to traditional hardening techniques such as seawalls and bulkheads, which create a barrier between land and water. According to NCCOS research conducted in Chesapeake Bay, armoring shorelines with barriers such as seawalls or riprap (rubble) can reduce habitat that birds use to forage, rest, and raise their young.

Similarly, we need wetlands. The amount of water wetlands can store is mind-boggling, said The Nature Conservancy’s New York Water Resource Scientist Catherine Gibson, Ph.D. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, a single acre of wetlands — an area smaller than a football field—can hold as much as 1.5 million gallons of water. Wetlands act like sponges, Gibson explained, literally slowing down and soaking up water that might otherwise flood homes, businesses and community institutions. Wetlands also hold water in place until drier conditions prevail and then release it downstream. In this way, they protect not just against floods but against drought, too. In New York, about half the 160 species the state identifies as threatened or endangered need wetlands to sustain themselves.

Although erosion is a natural coastal process, coastal communities face constant challenges from shoreline erosion. So-called “living shorelines” are offen an alternative to traditional shoreline barriers and include using vegetation, edging, sills and vegetated breakwaters to balance shoreline stabilization and coastal and marine resource conservation.

“Seawalls destroy beaches,” said Kevin McAllister, the founder of the Sag Harbor-based preservation advocacy group Defend H2O. “Subtle changes add up. We’re causing a chain reaction of habitat loss for seabirds and crustaceans and seeing greater amounts of saltwater intrusion. The southern pine beetle invasion, the proliferation of ticks and drought are each a sign of climate change’s local impact.”

“Invasive species come to us through transportation connections and through just our economy, and how it’s structured. It’s a little separate from climate change,” said Michelle Mueller-Gamez, Central Park Conservancy’s manager of climate change research. “I think if we’re not having days below freezing, we might be creating an environment where they can thrive.”

“Everyone can play a role in reducing our individual greenhouse gas emissions (emissions which are responsible for the climate change we are observing) to reduce climate change impacts in the future,” noted Stony Brook’s Reed. “But the way in which each of us does that can be different. It could be carpooling more often or slightly adjusting our diet. We can reimagine our coastlines to protect against sea level rise or take measures to keep our homes cooler on hot days. We need to be ready to adjust approaches as technologies and solutions change and improve because they will.”

Greater water conservation efforts are an easy way to fight against climate change. The average family uses about 40 gallons of water per day for showers, about 17 percent of an average home’s water use. While standard showerheads use about 2.5 gallons of water per minute, showerheads marked with the EPA’s WaterSense label use 2 gallons of water or less per minute. Since 1992, U.S. law requires that new toilets be low-flow or low-flush, which use 1.6 gallons or less of water per flush. Some newer low-flush toilets use less than 1.28 gallons per flush. Older homes can update to a low-flush toilet to reduce water use and save more than $140 annually compared with inefficient toilets.

On an individual level, we are just beginning to scratch the surface on the myriad ways climate change is impacting people, especially through social systems and health. The impact of extreme climate on social stability and economic development has been documented in many areas. According to estimates from the Climate Impact Lab, a warming planet may cause an increase in worldwide mortality rates of 73 deaths per 100,000 annually by the end of the century — approximately two-thirds of the U.S. COVID-19 2020 mortality rate.

Similarly, a warming world may lead to an increase in crime rates. The Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder notes that Americans may experience tens of thousands of extra violent crimes each year — because of climate change alone. “Depending on how quickly temperatures rise, we could see two to three million more violent crimes between now and the end of the century than there would be in a nonwarming world,” said Ryan Harp, a CIRES researcher. Warmer winters may be setting the stage for more violent crimes like assault and robbery, likely because less nasty weather creates more opportunities for interactions between people.

Each year approximately 12 million hectares (about 46,000 square miles) of forest are destroyed. This deforestation, together with agriculture and other land-use changes, is responsible for roughly 25 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions according to the United Nations Environment Program. We can help reverse this trend simply by planting trees.

“Trees are one of our greatest tools in fighting climate change,” McAllister said.

The greatest obstacle when it comes to fighting climate change, according to Reed, is the timescales in which climate change operates. “Greenhouse gas emissions today will impact weather for decades and centuries to come,” he said. “This is daunting for individuals and governments, and makes it difficult to take action as the reward for this action can be decades in the future. This is also an opportunity, as it means that even small changes today can lead to better outcomes in the future. We can’t wait for the perfect solution and we can’t delay any longer. We must implement solutions now, even if they aren’t perfect.”